The next decade may create new centers of economic power.
The global economy of 2035 will not be shaped only by the countries that dominate it today.
Demographics, manufacturing, energy, technology, natural resources and supply-chain shifts are changing where economic power can accumulate. S&P Global estimates that emerging markets could account for about 65% of global economic growth through 2035.
Some countries are particularly interesting because several of these forces are converging at once.
1. India
India is perhaps the clearest example of a country whose scale is becoming impossible to ignore.
Its population is expected to reach roughly 1.57 billion by 2035, making it the world’s most populous country by a wide margin. S&P Global expects India to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030.
But population alone does not create economic power.
India is also expanding manufacturing, digital infrastructure, services and domestic consumption. The World Bank estimates that reaching high-income status by 2047 would require India to sustain around 7.8% annual growth and raise investment to 40% of GDP by 2035.
What to watch: whether India can convert demographic scale into productivity, manufacturing and higher incomes.
2. Indonesia
Indonesia has something increasingly valuable: scale combined with resources and geography.
With a projected population of more than 300 million people in 2035, it will remain one of the world’s largest consumer markets. It is also positioned at the center of Southeast Asia and has major resources relevant to the energy transition.
S&P Global projects Indonesia to become the world’s eighth-largest economy by 2035.
Its importance could extend beyond GDP. Indonesia is becoming increasingly relevant to batteries, minerals, manufacturing and regional supply chains.
What to watch: whether Indonesia can move from being primarily a resource economy toward higher-value industrial production.
3. Vietnam
Vietnam is already one of the world’s most important manufacturing alternatives in Asia.
Its position inside global supply chains has attracted manufacturers seeking diversification, particularly as companies rethink their dependence on concentrated production networks.
S&P Global identifies Vietnam as one of the fastest-growing emerging markets toward 2035, supported by trade integration and policy consistency.
UN Trade and Development also lists Vietnam among the leading developing economies attracting digital-economy greenfield investment.
What to watch: whether Vietnam can move from assembly toward more technologically sophisticated manufacturing.
4. Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is attempting something unusual: using enormous oil wealth to finance the construction of a broader economy.
Vision 2030 targets a larger private sector, higher foreign investment and a significant expansion of non-oil economic activity. The IMF reported that Saudi non-oil GDP had reached $892 billion in 2025, with a 2030 target of $1.325 trillion.
The country is also investing heavily in infrastructure, tourism, technology, logistics and new industries.
Its strategic location between Asia, Europe and Africa adds another dimension.
What to watch: whether investment can translate into globally competitive industries rather than simply large projects.
5. Brazil
Brazil has a different kind of strategic advantage.
It combines one of the world’s largest agricultural sectors, abundant natural resources, a huge domestic market and an unusually renewable energy system.
Brazil’s 2035 energy plan projects renewable sources accounting for more than 85% of electricity generation and 51% of total domestic energy supply.
That could become increasingly valuable as the global economy demands more food, electricity, critical minerals and lower-carbon industrial inputs.
What to watch: whether Brazil can transform resource advantages into greater productivity, industrial value and technological capabilities.
6. Mexico
Mexico sits next to the world’s largest economy and inside one of its most important manufacturing ecosystems.
Its proximity to the United States, trade agreements and established industrial base make it a natural beneficiary of supply-chain diversification.
Mexico already plays major roles in automotive, electronics, aerospace and other manufacturing industries. S&P Global identifies its potential to attract additional production through nearshoring, although infrastructure, energy, water and skilled labor remain constraints.
What to watch: whether Mexico can turn geographic proximity into a deeper position in advanced manufacturing.
7. Nigeria
Nigeria’s importance could come from something that few countries can replicate: demographic scale.
The country’s population is projected to approach 285 million by 2035, according to UN-based projections.
That means an enormous future labor force and consumer market.
Nigeria also has significant natural resources and is already one of Africa’s most important economic centers. But the opportunity depends heavily on productivity, infrastructure, electricity, education and job creation. The World Bank continues to identify productivity and employment as central challenges for the country’s long-term development.
What to watch: whether Nigeria can turn population growth into economic growth.
The Bigger Picture
These seven countries are not comparable in the same way.
India has scale and technology.
Indonesia has resources and industrial potential.
Vietnam has supply-chain momentum.
Saudi Arabia has capital and energy.
Brazil has food, resources and renewable power.
Mexico has geography and manufacturing.
Nigeria has demographics and a huge future consumer market.
Their common denominator is not that they are guaranteed to become global powers.
It is that the forces reshaping the global economy are increasingly working in their favor.
By 2035, economic importance may depend less on who is biggest today and more on who can convert population, capital, resources, technology and geography into productive power.
